Future

Future

KLCI
Resistance:1439, 1454
Support: 1423

FKLI-DEC
Resistance:1422,1443.5,1474
Support: 1405
Position: Long if open between 1419.5-1422 and close above 1419.5.  Take profit at  1443.5

傳IMF 25兆救意大利‧美國假期銷售亮眼‧亞股攀升

（吉隆坡28日訊）傳國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）準備向意大利提供最多6千億歐元（約25兆令吉）的援助貸款，加上美國“黑色星期五”（Black Friday）銷售創歷史新高紀錄，刺激亞太股市紛紛上揚。

馬股休市

日經平均指數連跌5日後，今早上漲1.5%至8282點，閉市掛8287.49點，揚1.56%。韓國股市也上升2.19%，澳洲股市漲1.68%。馬股因公共假期休市一天。

意大利都靈報紙《La Stampa》週日援引國際貨幣基金組織消息人士的話報導，IMF可能向意大利提供4千億至6千億歐元的金融支持，以使意大總理蒙蒂（Mario Monti）能夠有12至18個月的時間實施改革，恢復市場對意大利償債能力的信心。

報導稱，IMF的援助方案包括以4至5%的利率向意大利提供貸款，低於該國最近7至8%的國債拍賣收益率。

不過，道瓊斯通訊社過後引述熟知歐債危機討論內情的消息人士指出，《La Stampa》稱IMF或向意大利提供4千億至6千億歐元金援的報導不可靠。

“黑色星期五”銷售額
114億美元創紀錄

另一方面，美國，“黑色星期五”的銷情佳。調查機構ShopperTrak預測，今年美國“黑色星期五”的銷售額錄得創紀錄的114億美元，按年增長6.6%，創2007年以來最大升幅，超越去年僅0.3%的升幅。前往店舖購物的人數，亦按年升5.1%。

東京信金資產管理公司（Shinkin Asset Management Co.）經理人藤原直樹（Naoki Fujiwara）表示，黑色星期五銷售表現證實美國正處於溫和復甦，且消費者購買力不應悲觀以對。此外，國際貨幣基金可能援助意大利的報導”舒緩外界疑 慮，讓投資人較易於買進。”

標普500指數12月指數期貨早盤上漲2%，顯示標準普爾500指數正常交易時料結束連7黑格局。

由於擔心歐洲債務危機將擴散，且美國決策者未能就降低聯邦預算達成協議，美國股市價值自11月15日以來蒸發逾1.2兆美元。

另《路透社》引述消息人士在週日表示，IMF專組將於本週抵達意大利，與新上任的總理蒙蒂相討如何削減開支。

蒙蒂預期在12月5日公佈新一輪的緊縮開支計劃。市場人士相信，有關計劃包括引入物業稅，提高銷售稅及延後退休年齡。不過，有分析員指出，隨著上週意大利國債拍賣的收益率大幅飆升，可能迫使當局加重緊縮開支的力度。

黃金油價上揚

商品方面，截至今日下午2時，黃金報1695.20美元，上漲1.90美元或0.11%，紐約輕原油每桶報98.330美元，上漲1.560或1.61%。

在外匯市場，歐元／美元掛1.3290，升0.0051或0.38%，美元／日圓報77.6375，跌0.0953或0.12%。

轉寄 列印 字體設定: 小 中 大 降級風暴襲全球‧評級機構“大屠殺”‧投資者人人自危

受歐債危機持續發酵影響，意大利10年期國債回酬率週四（11月24日）再度突破7%，暗示市場仍對意大利自身融資能力倍感擔憂。

數據顯示，10年期意大利國債回酬率稍早上升18個基點，至7.01%；5年期國債回酬率上升31個基點，至7.38%。

惠譽（Ftich）週四（11月24日）將葡萄牙債務評級下調一檔，至垃圾級，評級前景為負面。穆迪（Moody’s）將匈牙利評級下調一檔，至Ba1，評級前景為負面。同時葡萄牙工會團體舉行24小時罷工抗議政府的財政緊縮措施。

週五（11月25日）早些時候，穆迪將匈牙利政府公債評級下調一個等級，由Baa3下調至Ba1，維持負面展望。穆迪還警告稱，如果匈牙利在結構改革方面缺乏進展，有可能進一步調降其評級。

除此之外，穆迪週一曾表示，法國政府債務利率上升，同時經濟增長前景又更加疲弱，這會對法國的信用評級前景產生負面影響。穆迪在其每周信用展望報告稱，市場環境惡化威脅到法國的信用展望，不過本階段還不會威脅法國的實際評級。

穆迪已於10月中表示，如果救助銀行和其它歐元區成員的成本超出法國預算，就會在今後11月到 明年1月期間，將法國的評級展望降為負面。而另一評級機構標準普爾（S&P）10月20日也發出警告，稱如果歐元區再次陷入衰退，就會降低法國、 西班牙、意大利、愛爾蘭和葡萄牙的評級。

法國總統薩爾科齊在與德國總理默克爾及意大利總理蒙蒂24日會晤後向記者表示，尊重歐洲中行的獨立性，在各界試圖解決主權債務危機之際不會向歐洲中行（ECB）提出要求。

針對外界關於發行歐元區債券的呼聲，同時在惠譽下調葡萄牙信評至垃圾級後，德法兩國在有關是否發行歐元債券問題上意見依舊相左。默克爾重申反對發行歐元債券，令市場大失所望，歐元匯率大幅下挫，兌美元刷新7周新低。

分析師們稱，雖然投資者對宏觀經濟有所擔憂，但過去幾周黃金走勢與風險性資產一致，並沒有吸引避險買盤，投資者了結獲利的黃金頭寸，以滿足其他資產的保證金要求，這預示金價未來有下跌的風險。

德國商業銀行（Commerzbank）在報告中寫道：當前的美元走勢是驅動黃金價格波動的主要因素，黃金持續因流動性需要而被拋售，若股市和商品市場持續承壓，那麼這種趨勢將一直延續下去。

瑞士信貸（Credit Suisse）貴金屬分析師Tom Kendall指出，金價有可能向下測試1600美元水平附近的200日移動均線。金價曾於9月末觸及兩個半月低點1534.49美元/安士，該價位約為200日移動均線水平。

葡萄牙
惠譽打入垃圾級

信評機構惠譽24日將葡萄牙信評打入垃圾級，自BBB－調降一級至BB＋，展望維持負向，並警告可能進一步降級，理由是葡國經濟明年可能陷入衰退，使政府落實撙節計劃的難度增加。

葡萄牙10年期政府債券回酬率轉升，現升17個點至10.742%。

惠譽表示：“葡萄牙財政大幅失衡、所有部門高度負債，加上總體經濟前景不佳，意味主權信用狀況不再符合投資級評級。”

另一家信評機構穆迪7月時也將葡萄牙信評降至垃圾級，標普10月時則確認該國的投資級信評。

惠譽表示，歐洲經濟面臨的壓力增加，葡萄牙明年的國內生產總值（GDP）可能萎縮3%。

惠譽指出：“衰退將使葡萄牙政府的縮減赤字計劃面臨更多挑戰，將對銀行資產品質造成負面衝擊。”不過，惠譽評估葡國政府為紓困計劃提出的改革承諾很堅決，今年應會達到把預算赤字佔GDP比率從9.8%降到5.9%的目標。

惠譽還預估，葡萄牙政府累積的整體債務佔GDP比重至今年底將升高至110%，高於2010年底的93.3%，2013年底將攀抵最高水平的116%。

惠譽表示，國營企業是另一項財政危機的主要來源，這些部門過去一年已導致政府債務與赤字節節攀升。

葡萄牙債信評級遭到惠譽調降至垃圾級，民眾對日益增多的緊縮政策不滿，爆發1975年迄今最大規模的全國性大罷工行動，令國家遭受雙重衝擊。

埃及
標普調降
低於投資等級

由於埃及政治和經濟未來恐愈趨動盪，標普進一步調降埃及政府信評至低於投資等級。

標普將埃及長期外國和本國貨幣主權信評從BB－調降至B＋，展望負向。

穆迪也因當地政局挑戰及疲弱經濟，10月調降埃及信評。

在埃及中央銀行動手支撐貨幣之際，標普也指出，政府淨外匯儲備從去年12月底的360億美元，減少至今年10月底的220億美元。

埃及中行週四再次出手，調高國家指標利率以保護埃及鎊，試圖遏止賣壓。

埃及動亂已深深傷害當地經濟。

幾年前，埃及仍有7%的成長率。不過IMF預測今年只有1%。

阻資金外逃
埃及閃電升息

埃及中央銀行24日宣佈2008年以來首次升息，以遏止最近動亂所造成的資金外逃。埃及人民年初推翻前總統穆巴拉克（Hosni Mubarak）後，近日爆發第二波抗議風潮，警民衝突造成慘重死傷。

埃及中行貨幣政策委員會上調隔夜存款利率1%，由8.25%上調至9.25%，隔夜放款利率則由9.75%，調高0.5%，至10.25%。根據彭博社針對5位經濟師調查，所有受訪者皆預期埃及中行利率按兵不動。

埃及中行以通膨前景有上揚風險，以及不確定性升高為由，決議升息。

開羅投資銀行CI Capital研究部門共同主管曼蘇爾（Mona Mansour）接受電話專訪時表示，“他們試圖提高埃及幣存款，因為自從革命以來，美元存款大幅增加。”“升息舉措跌破市場眼鏡，因為鼓勵投資切忌升息，這將對投資環境帶來負面衝擊”。

開羅解放廣場（Tahrir Square）近一週來抗議集會不斷，要求軍政府下台，暴力衝突至少已造成38人喪生。

匈牙利
穆迪降至垃圾級

受歐盟負債最重成員國――匈牙利內閣尋求IMF協助以提振信心影響，穆迪15年來首度將該國評級調降至投資等級以下。

穆迪發聲明指出，將匈牙利外國和本國貨幣債券評等由Baa3調降1級至最高垃圾等級的Ba1，維持展望負向。穆迪於1996年將匈牙利評等列為投資等級。

在歐元區債務危機惡化下，匈牙利政府過去3個月期間已取消兩次債券發售，並縮減另外8次債券標售規模。

標普：列負面觀察名單

在匈牙利向IMF和歐洲聯盟求援後，標普將匈牙利債信展望維持在負面觀察名單。

標普表示，續在負面觀察名單反映了他們認為匈牙利政策框架可預測性降低，衝擊該國經濟的中期成長前景。

標普表示，預期在取得更多關於匈國向IMF及歐盟乞援將如何影響成長前景和財政風險的資訊後，將對列入負面觀察的信評做出決定。

列入負面觀察名單的是匈牙利外幣和本幣主權債信評級，等級分別是BBB－/A-3。首次被列入負面觀察名單是在2011年11月11日。

標普和惠譽目前將匈牙利評等列為最低投資等級。

美國
減赤若變卦
穆迪警告：將降信評

穆迪投資服務公司（Moody’s）警告，如果美國國會未來10年自動削減1.2兆美元赤字的計劃未落實，他們將調降美國政府的頂尖債信評級。

穆迪目前仍給與美國政府債券最高的Aaa評級，但展望是負向，亦即列入調降的觀察名單。

美國會負責削減赤字的超級委員會本周未能針對替代的減赤方案達成協議，穆迪聲明不會降低美國的長期債信評級，主要原因就是兩黨協商陷入僵局後，自動削減赤字的機制將在2013年啟動，一樣可以達到相同規模的赤字縮減。

不過，許多共和黨議員宣稱，他們將封殺約占總額一半的國防計劃削減。

穆迪表示，任何縮小減赤機制的行動，都會迫使穆迪降低美國的信評。

穆迪的聲明指出：“雖然削減支出的結構改變不是信評的重大考量因素，但整體規模的縮減對信評卻有負面的含意。”穆迪並未透露下一次檢討美國信評的時間。

另一家信用評級機構惠譽公司（Fitch）也給與美國政府債券最高的AAA評級，但8月時曾說，國會若未能提出協議，可能導致評級的重估；惠譽將在本月底提出報告。

8月間已率先把美國長期公債評級從AAA降到AA＋的標普，21日也表示不會再降低美國債信，但同樣提出警告，強調目前的評級是建立在自動削減赤字機制不會縮水的前提之上。

冰島
經濟回溫
標普：展望穩定

冰島經濟恢復成長，標普將其債信展望從負向調升為穩定，並確認BBB－信評。

標普說：“穩定展望是我們認為冰島經濟基本面改善，與未來數年解除資本管制後伴隨而來的負向風險，兩者互相平衡的結果。”

根據冰島7月間公佈的上一份官方經濟預測，冰島經濟經過兩年衰退後，今年應該會成長2.5%，2012年成長率更會提高到3.1%。

標普表示，若冰島經濟成長潛能提高，同時受外在環境影響衝擊的程度降低，將考慮調高冰島信評，因為冰島外債可能會快速減少，資本管制解除過程會更加順利。

冰島在2008年金融危機高峰時開始管制資金進出，政府預測管制會持續至2015年。不過冰島國會9月通過新法，允許政府在2013年取消管制，如果可能的話，時間或許更早。

冰島經濟部長上週推出提昇經濟競爭力、促進危機期間重挫的出口業恢復的計劃。

法國
頂級信評受威脅

信評公司惠譽（Fitch）指出，如果歐元區的危機進一步惡化，法國頂級評級將受威脅。

惠譽23日表示，法國目前仍夠格獲AAA級最高債信評級，但如果歐元區危機進一步惡化，導致法國經濟急遽下滑，迫使法國必須對銀行紓困，那麼“法國的AAA評級可能籠罩威脅”。

惠譽表示，法國近期採取的緊縮措施改善了其公信力，但同時警告稱法國仍需要進一步採取措施以實 現預算目標，並且若經濟大幅下滑，其AAA信用評級可能受到威脅。在不到3個月的時間裡，法國政府先後推出了兩項緊縮計劃，擬在2012年年底前節省 190億歐元，以期在經濟增速放緩的情況下實現預算赤字目標。

惠譽稱這些措施改善了法國政府整頓計劃的公信力。

不過，該評級機構同時表示，若不進一步採取措施，到2013年法國公共部門赤字將佔國內生產總值（GDP）的4%左右，高於其佔GDP3%的目標。

惠譽同時警告稱，若歐元區債務危機進一步惡化，法國AAA主權信用評級可能受到威脅。還表示，當前法國AAA評級仍受到具有高附加值且多樣化的經濟支撐。

穆迪21日表示，法國AAA評級穩定前景承壓，但評級本身尚未受到政府債務指標的威脅。

摩根大通補充稱，從長期來看，法國存在評級下調的實質性風險，除非法國滿足財政目標並進行結構性改革。

在歐洲金融穩定基金的信貸額度中，法國貢獻三分之一，法國評級一旦下調，信貸規模將相應削減。

日本被點名

國際信評公司標準普爾（S&P）週四暗示未來可能調降日本債信評級，導致東京股市當日跌到2年8個月來的最低點，公債回酬率上升。國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）也對日本財政惡化提出警告。

標普駐新加坡主權評級部門主管小川隆平直言，“日本財政每天、每秒都在惡化。”當被問及是否已接近調降日本評級的時間點，小川表示，“日本更加接近降評的說法，可能是對的，不過惡化是漸進式的，不代表我們今天就要降評。”

標普對日本的沉重負債表達憂慮，認為日本首相野田佳彥的執政團隊在對付債務問題上並無進展，意味該機構可能調降日本主權債信評級。

消息一出，日經指數重挫1.8%，創2009年3月以來最低收盤紀錄，10年期公債回酬率最多漲到0.995%。

標普今年1月將日本信評降為A－，4月時又將債信展望調降為“負向”。

IMF：日債回酬率恐暴升

IMF公佈的“日本穩定性報告”（Japan Sustainable Report）中警告，市場對於日本財政穩定性的疑慮，可能導致日本公債回酬率“瞬間上升”，引發日本債務情況急速惡化到難以支撐，進而波及全球經濟。

IMF提醒日本政府，有鑑於一些歐洲經濟體的債務問題引爆成為整個歐洲中國的危機，國際社會如今也對日本財政問題可能導致的結果，感到憂心忡忡。

IMF警告，一旦日本公債回酬率攀升，日本財政很快將無以為繼。而且由於日本銀行、保險業和企業退休基金的海外投資十分可觀，如果這些機構因日本公債回酬率飆升而蒙受損失，可能迅速將海外的資金撤回。果真如此，英國、韓國將是G20國家中受創最重者。

桃太郎賣德債
改抱英債

歐債危機持續惡化，投資者甚至對德國公債的信心都受到影響。根據日本政府的資料，日本投資者今年來持續把資金從德國公債轉向英國公債。

日本財務省11月9日資料顯示，日本基金經理人今年1月到9月共買進價值1.53兆日圓的英國公債，是2008年以來最大的年度買進金額。期間日系基金賣出最多的是德債，價值1.46兆日圓，其次為意大利和法國。

英債需求強勁加上英格蘭銀行有意在必要情況下擴大量化寬鬆規模來刺激經濟，讓英國10年期和30年期公債回酬率，已分別下跌至2.1%和3.06%，是彭博追蹤以來最低紀錄。

其中10年期英債回酬率，已降至與同年期德債回酬率差不多的水平，週四在2.17%，是2009年來首見；跟同年期日債利差也縮小至1.18%，為20年來最小差距。

三菱UFJ資產管理的基金經理下村英雄預期10年期英債回酬率將在今年底前下跌至2%，因為英國可望續推大規模量化寬鬆措施。

Stock to Monitor 21-25 NOV

Miss out AEM.  If EOD above 0.285, can buy.  TP:0.32,0.35 CL:0.275

Break out chart pattern

1-2-3 CONTINUATION PATTERN:

Criteria:
1. Wide range bar breaking out of support.
2. Narrow range bar near/at the highs of the previous wide range bar. Often this narrow range bar is also an inside range bar.
Entry: Switch to a smaller time frame and take a breakout from the base or use above the highs of the narrow range bar of bar 2.
Stop: Under the lows of the base or last major pivot low on the smaller time frame, under the lows of the narrow range bar, or under the lows of the third bar at the time of the setup.
Target: Bar 1 = Bar 3

Examples:
Top

THE 2B SETUP:

Criteria: A high followed by a slightly higher high.
Entry: As the high of the first high breaks on a pullback from the second high. Alternate entry (used by Toni): Under the prior bar's lows after the second high is made. For instance if the lows of the bar making the second high is $50, entry is under $50. The only time it is not under the bar that made the second high is if that high is followed by an inside range bar, so you would use a break in the lows of the inside range bar.
Stop: Over the second high.
Target: Price or moving average support.

Example:

Top

ASCENDING TRIANGLE:

Criteria: Equal/Nearly equal highs and higher lows on decreasing volume.
Entry: Breakout from the trend lines on higher then average volume as the trend lines converge.
Stop: Under the lows of the base or last major pivot low on the smaller time frame or under the lows of the setup bar.
Target: Equal distance on a breakout comparable to the distance between the first high and first low in the triangle. Ascending triangles tend to breakout higher.
Example:

Top

AVALANCHE:

Criteria:
1. Uptrend
2. Stronger than average rally.
3. Pullback of 3-5 bars comparable to or stronger than previous rally, usually on increasing volume, to moving average support (typically the 10, 20 or 30 sma.)
4. Hugs the moving average support on decreasing volume. 4-5 bars average.
5. Moving averages start to converge (10 and 20 sma if it's setting up on the 20 sma.)
Entry: Switch to smaller time frame and enter on a breakdown in support or going into resistance.
Stop: Over previous or current day's highs. Usually you will use current day's highs or intraday resistance.
Target: Next major simple moving average.

Example1:

Example 2:

Top

BASING / TRADING RANGE / CONGESTION / CONSOLIDATION

Example:

Top

BEAR FLAG:

Criteria:
1. Downtrend.
2. Gentle pullback to resistance, such as the 20 sma, on decreasing volume.
Entry: Below the previous bar's lows or using an intraday breakdown such as a break in the uptrend line of the flag. Volume should start to pick up at this time to confirm the setup.
Stop: Above the previous bar's highs or above intraday resistance.
Target: New lows, usually on high volume.
Example:

Top

BREAKOUT:

Criteria: A base/trading range at highs or lows.
Entry: A breakout in the most recent section of the trading range or trend line in the direction of the trend prior to the trading range. Can also take an entry into moving average support in the case of a long and sma resistance in the case of a short.
Stop: Under simple moving average support such as the 15 minute 20 sma in the case of a setup on the 15 minute chart or under the last pivot low within the trading range.
Target: Moving average resistance (like the 15 minute 200 sma), price resistance (such as a previous pivot), or an equal move to that before the trading range on the move out of the trading range.
Example:
IBC was mentioned in the Live Trading Room on 7/16/2002 to watch on 7/17/2002 and again in the morning on 7/17 as a breakout daytrade.

Top

BULL FLAG:

Criteria:
1. Uptrend.
2. Gentle pullback to support, such as the 10 or 20 sma, on decreasing volume.

Entry: Above the previous bar's highs or using an intraday breakout such as a break in the downtrend line of the flag. Volume should start to pick up at this time to confirm the setup.
Stop: Below the previous bar's highs or below intraday resistance.
Target: New highs
Example:

Top

BULL TRAP - A gap setup:

Criteria:
1. A bullish daily pattern. Preferably where the market opens at lows and closes at highs.
2. A gap down in the morning, generally on news, whereby the stock opens at or under the previous day's lows.
Entry: Break in 5 minute lows (A) or an intraday setups such as a breakdown out of a base at lows (B) or a bear flag.
Stop: Depending on the objective and entry. On a break in 5 minute lows for a day or swingtrade you can use above the 5 minute highs. For intraday breakdown setups use a stop over the last 5-7 bars or over significant intraday moving average resistance. The same goes for intraday bear flags. For position trades use over the high of the previous day or over the current day's highs.
Target: Equal distance on a breakout comparable to the distance between the first high and first low in the triangle.
Example:

Top

CORE BUY SETUP:

Criteria:
1. Uptrend.
2. Gentle pullback of 3-5 bars average to the 10-20 simple moving average zone on decreasing volume.
Entry: Above the previous bar's highs or using an intraday breakout. Volume should pick up at this time to confirm the setup.
Stop: Under the previous bar's lows or under intraday support.
Target: New highs.
Example:
CBH was given in the Live Trading Room on 4/24 as a Core Buy swingtrade.

Example:

Top

CORE SHORT SETUP:

Criteria:
1. Downtrend.
2. Gentle pullback of 3-5 bars average to the 10-20 simple moving average resistance zone on decreasing volume.
Entry: Below the previous bar's lows or using an intraday breakdown. Volume should start to pick up at this time to confirm the setup.
Stop: Above the previous bar's highs or above intraday resistance.
Target: New lows, usually on high volume.

Example:

Top

CUP WITH HANDLE:

A type of Phoenix.
Criteria: A stock coming out of a downtrend with rounded lows that puts in a slightly lower high and then pulls back gradually to put in a higher low.
Entry: On a breakout higher out of the pullback. There will often be a moving average crossover (such as a cross in the 10 and 20 sma)
Stop: Under lows of the pullback.
Target: Highs of the beginning of the cup or an equal move out of pullback as compared to move off lows.
Example:

Top

HEAD & SHOULDERS:

Criteria: High (left shoulder) followed by a higher high (head) and then a lower high (right shoulder) which is comparable to the left shoulder.
Entry: Breakdown from the neckline. The neckline connects the lows on either side of the head. Alternative and preferred entry is using a bear flag breakdown to enter after the right shoulder has formed.
Stop: Over the past pivot high or 20 simple moving average resistance
Target: Previous reversal prices and support zones such as a 5 minute 200 sma if the setup occurs on the 15 minute chart.
Example:
The Nasdaq was given in the Live Trading Room on 5/31 as a Head & Shoulders market alert. (05/31/02 10:41:54 <Toni> Market Alert: 15 minute Nasdaq Head& Shoulders)

Top

OOPS DAILY BUY:

Criteria: Wide range bar on increased volume (preferably at a strong support level)
Entry: Above 5 minute high on a gap up or an intraday breakout to highs.
Stop: Under current or previous day's lows
Target: Price resistance, 5 minute 200 sma, 15 minute 200 sma, 10 & 20 day sma. This is a 1/2 - 1 1/2 day hold, depending on objective.
Examples:

Top

PENNANTS / WEDGES

Top

PHOENIX 

Criteria:
1. Downtrend
2. Pullback higher of 3-5 bars comparable to or stronger than previous decline, usually off lows on high volume, to 20 simple moving average resistance
3. Hugs the moving average support on decreasing volume. 4-5 bars average.
4. Moving averages start to converge (10 and 20 sma if it's setting up on the 20 sma.)
Entry: Switch to smaller time frame and enter on a breakout in resistance and/or the 20sma.
Stop: Under previous or current day's lows on a daily setup. Usually I will use current day's lows or a break in intraday support.
Target: Next major simple moving average. For example, a setup on the 2 minute chart has a target of 5 minute 20 sma and a setup on the 5 minute chart has a target of the 15 minute 20 sma. Also watch for equal moves.
Example:

Top

REVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDERS

General Criteria: Low (left shoulder) followed by a lower low (head) and then a higher low (right shoulder) which is comparable to the left shoulder.
Entry: Break higher from the neckline. The neckline connects the highs on either side of the head. Alternative and preferred entry is using a Phoenix to enter after the right shoulder has formed.
Stop: Under the past pivot low or 20 simple moving average support
Target: Previous reversal prices and resistance zones such as a 5 minute 200 sma if the setup occurs on the 15 minute chart. Also whole number resistance.


Example:

Top

SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE

Criteria: Lower highs and higher lows on decreasing volume.
Entry: Breakout from the trend lines on higher then average volume as the trend lines converge.
Stop: Under the lows of the base or last major pivot low on the smaller time frame or under the lows of the setup bar in the case of a buy.
Target: Equal distance on a breakout comparable to the distance between the first high and first low in the triangle. Symmetrical triangles tend to resolve themselves in the direction of the overall trend. There are exceptions, mainly at strong resistance in the case of an uptrend or strong support in the case of a downtrend. This tends to be one of the more difficult patterns for trader's to learn to use successfully.

Example:

BOLTON

Entry Price: 0.845
TP: 0.855,0.885,0.935,0.98
CL: 0.805

Stock to monitor 14-18 Nov

Counter	Entry Price	TP	CL	Vol MA
KHEESAN	0.465	0.49,0.505	0.45	0.45M
DIGISTA	0.475	0.485,0.525	0.45	2.6M
VS	1.38	1.46,1.58	1.31	90k
UEMLAND	2.25	2.4,2.48	2.14	15M
ULICORP	0.86	0.9,0.99	0.81	1.87M
TAKASO	0.21	0.26	0.18	10M
TDEX	0.105	0.13,0.15	0.095	0.37M
TSH	3.48	3.54,3.61	3.38	0.26M
TWSPLNT	3.48	3.6,3.68	3.43	0.31M
SOZO	0.62	0.67,0.72	0.595	1M
SUPPORT	0.385	0.41,0.52	0.34	0.37M
SYCAL	0.17	0.18,0.195	0.155	0.22M
SYSTECH	0.15	0.16,0.22	0.135	13.3M
QL	2.97	3.05,3.14	2.89	0.69M
PBA	1.05	1.09,1.13	1	80K
PERSTIM	4.04	4.21,4.38	3.95	30K
PJI	0.165	0.175,0.185	0.15	2.06M
N2N	0.325	0.385	0.28	20K
MAA	0.515	0.56,0.605	0.47	8.67M
MAGNA	0.845	0.87,0.9	0.82	1.93M
MCLEAN	0.19	0.2,0.225	0.17	1.5M
MEGB	1.44	1.52,1.64	1.38	2.9M
MUIIND	0.25	0.26,0.3	0.225	34M
HIL	0.66	0.735	0.6	0.17M
GFB	1.21	1.26,1.31	1.17	16K
ECM	0.815	0.845,0.89	0.79	1.36M
ENG	1.59	1.68,1.76	1.51	0.9M
EURO	0.265	0.285,0.37	0.23	60K
DVM	0.08	0.095	0.075	6.6M
CAMRES	0.245	0.265,0.29	0.23	50K
COMCORP	0.2	0.23,0.26	0.17	40K

ECB as Last-Resort Lender Will End Crisis: Silva

The European Central Bank can stop the spread of the continent’s financial crisis with “foreseeable, unlimited” purchases of Italian and other government bonds, Portuguese President Anibal Cavaco Silva said.
“The European Central Bank has to go beyond a narrow interpretation of its mission and should be prepared for foreseeable intervention in the secondary market, not as the central bank has done up to now,” Cavaco Silva said yesterday in an interview at Bloomberg headquarters in New York. He said government leaders are unlikely to move fast enough to find solutions.
“It has to be able to be a lender of last resort,” said Cavaco Silva, 72, who as Portugal’s prime minister presided over the 1992 signing of the Maastricht Treaty, which cleared the way for the euro common currency. “It has to be a foreseeable, unlimited intervention.”
Italian 10-year bond yields this week climbed to a euro-era record of 7.48 percent, surging past the 7 percent level that led Greece, Ireland and Portugal to seek international bailouts. Ten-year Italian rates were recently at 6.63 percent after yesterday’s successful auction of one-year bills.
Such ECB purchases in the secondary market “would stop speculation, would stop doubts about the future value of those Italian or Spanish or Portuguese or Irish bonds,” the president said. “The real firewall is in the European Central Bank.”
He said the ECB won’t convince investors of its commitment if it continues “as the central bank has done up to now, saying ‘I don’t like it, but I’m forced to buy some Italian bonds.’”

ECB Response

ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot of the Netherlands said yesterday the central bank can’t do “much more” to stem the 17-nation euro region’s debt crisis.
Knot is the latest ECB policy maker to signal the central bank is unwilling to significantly ramp up its bond purchases to calm financial markets. ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet of Belgium and council member Jens Weidmann of Germany have also said the ECB cannot legally buy bonds to bail out a debt- strapped member state.
The cost of insurance against default on Italian government bonds eased to 569 basis points yesterday from the previous day’s record 571. That compares with 1,072 basis points for Portuguese debt, 749 for Irish bonds and 93 for German bunds.
Investors are demanding 964 basis points, or 9.64 percentage points, in additional interest today for Portuguese 10-year debt relative to comparable German debt, down from a record 1,071 basis points in July.

Taxes, Pensions

Portuguese lawmakers approved the government’s 2012 budget proposal in an initial vote today, said Assuncao Esteves, president of the country’s parliament. A final vote is scheduled for Nov. 30, according to the parliament’s website.
Portugal is raising taxes, cutting pensions, and reducing government workers’ pay to comply with the terms of the 78 billion-euro ($106 billion) aid package it received from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund in May. Portugal is committed to meeting terms of the bailout, though the country’s austerity should be eased by bringing capital requirements on Portuguese banks in line with rules for other countries’ lenders, Cavaco Silva said.
By forcing Portuguese banks to lift Core Tier 1 capital levels to 9 percent by year-end, while other European banks have until mid-2012, the bailout is imposing unnecessary hardship on the economy, the president said.
“The deleveraging is too strong and too fast,” said Cavaco Silva. “It would be reasonable to be more gradual, and we hope the troika will understand this,” referring to the EU, IMF and ECB officials who review Portugal’s compliance. It’s not a renegotiation of the bailout agreement, he said, adding “no, not at all, that’s not a question.”

University of York

Cavaco Silva, an economist with a doctorate from the University of York in England, entered politics as finance minister in 1980 and 1981. He won the leadership of the Social Democratic Party in 1985 and served as prime minister from that year until 1995, the longest tenure of any democratically elected prime minister in Portugal.
He won the presidency in 2006, sharing the stage with Socialist Prime Minister Jose Socrates, whose minority government fell in March after he failed to win support for deficit-cutting measures.
Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho, a Social Democrat elected in June, is committed to reducing the budget deficit to 5.9 percent of gross domestic product in 2011 from last year’s 9.8 percent, and to 4.5 percent in 2012 before returning to the 3 percent limit set by the EU for countries using the euro.

‘Indiscipline and Irresponsibility’

Passos Coelho yesterday said the ECB shouldn’t pay for some countries’ “indiscipline and irresponsibility,” and that there isn’t sufficient consensus in Europe to change the central bank’s mandate. The ECB’s interventions as they stand have guaranteed some financial stability, he said in parliament.
Portugal’s economy will shrink 3 percent next year, the European Commission forecast yesterday. It would be one of only two countries with declines in GDP, the other being Greece with a 2.8 percent drop, the commission said, while the euro area expands 0.5 percent. Portuguese GDP is forecast to fall 1.9 percent this year, the commission said.
The country’s benchmark PSI-20 Index (PSI20) has tumbled 27 percent this year, compared with a 14 percent decline in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index and a 23 percent drop in Italy’s FTSE MIB Index.
Portugal’s government, which forecasts a 2.8 percent GDP decline for next year, sees a 1.2 percent recovery in 2013, paving the way for it to return to the markets when the three- year bailout program ends. Whether that will happen on time is impossible to predict, Cavaco Silva said.

European Summit

“I can’t say that Portugal will be able to go to the market at the end, nobody can say that,” he said. “Nobody could anticipate what is happening now in Italy.”
Still, according to decisions at a European summit in June, Portugal will qualify for continued aid as long as it’s complying with the terms of the bailout agreement, the president said. He’s confident Europe’s leaders will make decisions in the future that will get the region through the crisis, he said.
“I used to say that at the end, in the 25th hour, the wisdom of the leaders would come up,” Cavaco Silva said. “It has always been like that.”

Stock I Monitor this week

Counter	Oct-31	04-Nov	11-Nov	Remark
Benalec	any price below 1.27	1.35		Cleared
Rsawit	any price below 1.31	1.48		Cleared
BORNOIL	any price below 0.41	0.405	0.415	Cleared
NTPM	bought at 0.495	0.5	0.5	Hold
MPCORP	0.33 with volume	0.345	0.36	Cleared
MAA	bought at 0.455	0.495		Cleared
MCLEAN	0.18 with volume	0.18	0.185	Cleared
MEGB	bought at 1.09	1.36		Cleared
KPSCB	0.29 with volume	0.305		cleared
KRETAM	bought at 2.05	2.1	2.17	Cleared
JTIASA	5.47 with volume	6		cleared
JTINTER	any price below 6.45	6.3	6.4	Hold
ICAP	2.02 with volume	2.02	2.03	Hold
INTEGRA	1.22	1.14	1.18	Not hitting entry price
HAIO	1.96	1.92		Cut
HELP	1.69	1.7	1.68	Hold
GHLSYS	0.37 with 60k volume	0.35	0.355	Not hitting entry price
GPHAROS	0.36	0.355	0.355	Not hitting entry price
ILB	0.74	0.705	0.715	Not hitting entry price
AEM		0.25	0.325	Cleared
ARMADA		3.78	3.73	Cleared at 3.90
BCB		0.43	0.42	Not hitting entry price
BJASSET		0.88	0.86	Not hitting entry price
BJCORP		1.05	1	Not hitting entry price
BOLTON		0.85	0.815	Not hitting entry price
CYBERT		0.12	0.11	Hold
DELLOYD		3.41	3.4	Not hitting entry price
Digista		0.43	0.46	Hold
DIJACOR		1.41	1.39	Not hitting entry price
DVM		0.095	0.08	Cut
ECM		0.81	0.775	Not hitting entry price
ENG		1.59	1.52	Monitor
ESSO		3.79	3.54	Ignore
FAVCO		1.14	1.15	Cleared
GOLSTA		0.35	0.33	Cleared
GUOCO		0.93	0.89	Not hitting entry price
HUAAN		0.27	0.265	Cleared
IVORY		0.91	1	Cleared
Medainc		0.49	0.54	Cleared
PERDANA		0.745	0.765	Cleared
KEYWEST		0.145	0.14	Hold
KENANGA		0.62	0.585	Not hitting entry price
KHEESAN		0.46	0.46	Hold
KWANTAS		1.93	1.94	SM acc
NSOP		5.26	5.27	Cleared
OLYMPIA		0.315	0.295	Not hitting entry price
PMCAP		0.1	0.09	Not hitting entry price

宏洋10日停牌‧公佈重大工程

（吉隆坡9日訊）宏洋控股（BENALEC，5190，主板建筑組）申請明日（10日）全段暫停交易，以公佈攫取重大工程消息。

該公司發表文告說，大馬股票交易所已批准上述暫停交易時間，即當天早上9時至下午5時。

宏洋控股是根據上市條例實踐指南第3.1（c）段，作出上述申請。

此前消息人士披露，該公司的柔佛填土工程洽商進入最後階段，相信將宣佈獲頒這項工程。一旦屬實，將是該公司繼本月1日攫取3千660萬令吉馬六甲填海工程後，爭取的另一項大型計

65% Chance of Banking Crisis by End November: Think Tank

There is a 65 percent chance of a banking crisis between November 23-26 following a Greek default and a run on the Italian banking system, according to analysts at Exclusive Analysis, a research firm which focuses on global risks.

M. Lorden | Taxi | Getty Images A domino effect on banks is 65% likely following a Greek default and a run on the Italian banking system according to analysts

Having tested a number of assumptions in a scenario modeling exercise, the Exclusive Analysis team warned it is becoming less and less likely that EU leaders will simply “muddle through” and have made some bold calls with clear timelines on when the euro zone will be thrown into a major financial crisis.

The most likely outcome according to their analysis is a sudden crisis in which the US, UK and BRICs nations refuse to provide funding via the IMF for the euro zone. In a world where predictions are made with no time lines, the paper makes some bold predictions which can be held to account over the next three weeks.

In the worst case scenario, Exclusive Analysis expects the governments of Greece and Portugal to collapse due to a lack of consensus on how to handle the debt crisis leading to social unrest. German opposition to handing more funds to the EFSF rises, leading Germany’s parliament to actually reduce the money available to the bailout fund.

“In face of that, China and the other BRICs give clear signals that they will not support the bailout fund. The EFSF turns to the ECB , which refuses to print out the amount of money the former needs to bailout the PIIGS. In face of the EU's failure to boost the EFSF, the European banks refuse to accept the 50 percent haircut on the Greek debt. Both the IMF and the ECB suspend payments to Greece,” said the report released on Tuesday evening.

Between November 18-22, French debt, under Exclusive Analysis' most likely scenario, is downgraded leading to the interbank lending market freezing up with new governments in Greece and Italy “faced down by protestors in their attempts to implement more austerity”.

Civil unrest follows in Spain following the election of a new government which pushes through even tighter austerity measures, and Portugal announces it cannot meet financial targets putting its bailout cash from the IMF and ECB at risk.

“Increased fear that these economies will default creates bank runs in Greece and Portugal and a downgrade of French sovereign debt from AAA to AA. EFSF is subsequently downgraded to AA+” said the report.

“The spreads applied to the debt of all PIIGS increase with yields on Italian bonds reaching 7.3 percent. In a second contagion effect, depositors in Spain and Italy fear a banking crisis in their own countries, which end up creating a series of bank runs and a collapse of the interbank credit market as banks know that most of their counterparts are at risk. Greece defaults.”

More on CNBC.com

• The Euro 'Event' Will Cause Depression: HSBC
• 'Eurosceptic' Voices Getting Louder in UK

This doomsday scenario comes to a head between November 23-26 when Greece leaves the euro to print money and rescue its banking sector. The new currency falls quickly and depositors lose out as their investments are converted into the new local currency.

“The government default on the sovereign debt and the banks default on their foreign debt, which causes a banking crisis across Europe. Italian bond yields rise and exceed 7 percent and the country faces bank runs, in face of which the government freezes deposits and defaults on the sovereign debt”.

So far so scary. For those looking for some hope, the Exclusive Analysis report predicts a 25 percent chance that the EU will continue to muddle through. In this scenario new politicians in Greece, Italy and Spain are given some breathing room by voters to find new solutions to the crisis until the end of the year. Portugal still fails to meet its fiscal targets, putting its bailout cash at risk, and French debt is still downgraded on prospect of Greek debt default.

“However, the new governments in Italy, Spain and Greece are given a honeymoon period by protestors and euro zone counterparts, which prevents a market rout.”

In January and February, Greece defaults but the fallout is contained as a new deal on 70 percent haircuts is agreed. Spanish and Italian bond yields hit 7 percent.

“Civil disorder continues in Portugal and Spain, reducing their ability to implement austerity packages. Sovereign ratings in Spain and Italy are downgraded and the prospect of rescue feels imminent as far as analysts are concerned,” warns the report in its muddle-through scenario.

“However, the UK and US governments reduce their objections to the use of IMF resources to fund the EFSF, which, together with a Greek default, improves market conditions and halts the rise in yields on the Italian and Spanish debts.”

With Spain and Italy entering IMF programs, the debt crisis rubbles on in 2012 and 2013 before things turn nasty as Greece defaults and recreates the drachma.

“Markets close to Italy and Portugal again towards end-2012 and civil unrest resume, starting off a second cycle of crisis and speculation about the future of the euro zone.”

If that is the muddle-through scenario, then we are in for a very nasty end to 2011 and years of euro zone debt crisis. But Exclusive Analysis does predict a 10 percent chance that the crisis is resolved.

In this good news scenario Greece still defaults before the end of the year, but “stronger political leadership in other PIIGS contains the fallout”.

“New governments in Italy, Spain and Greece are given a honeymoon period by protestors as they attempt to implement more austerity; a real sense of national unity is constructed with respect to the crisis.”

The new governments are seen as more credible and the US, UK, IMF and BRICs agree to make more funds available to the EFSF.

“The new ECB head is persuasive of the need for the ECB to purchase more bonds from national governments. Greece defaults in November, but under the new technocratic government the process is orderly and banks agree to accept 70 percent haircut on their credit. France recapitalizes its banks and suffers a sovereign downgrade,” said the report.

In the first two months of 2012 France and Germany reach an accommodation on ECB lending and fiscal rules which means the ECB becomes a lender of last resort in return for statuary limits on the amount the so-called PIIGS can borrow, a condition demanded by Germany.

“Market conditions improve and PIIGS bond yields decrease following these successful negotiations. Italy and Spain are emboldened by their lower yields and by the Franco-German pressure to negotiate a restructuring of their debt with creditors with a view to smoothing and lengthening the maturity profile.”